Why Wolves must be clinical to complete rare double over Man City

Adrian Clarke looks at key tactical points and players who can be influential in Matchweek 36.

Team analysis - Wolverhampton Wanderers

Wolves are aiming to become the first Premier League side to land a second "double" over Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City.

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Back in 2019/20, they won both matches against the reigning champions, who have only ever been beaten home and away in the same campaign by four other clubs since the Spaniard took charge in 2016.

Indeed, Wolves could become the first side to complete more than one league double across Guardiola's entire league managerial career.

Gary O’Neil’s men produced a monumental defensive effort to claim a 2-1 success at Molineux in September.

While it will be far from easy to replicate that display, they do at least know what it takes from a tactical, physical and mental perspective.

Staying resilient 

First and foremost, Wolves did an outstanding job of keeping Man City at bay in that memorable win.

City applied pressure throughout, making nearly 600 passes and enjoying 46 touches inside the area.

Yet from their 23 shots, City’s Expected Goals (xG) tally was only 0.87, their fourth lowest of the season.

As a visual representation, these graphics below give a nice indication of how resilient Wolves were, working overtime to defend their box.

To stand any chance of picking up a point, or even claiming that second successive victory, Wolves will need to be near-perfect in their collective off-the-ball work.

They must double up on Man City’s wingers, but also ensure they pack the central region with enough players when the hosts push them back.

Situations, like this one below from early on in that triumph, will see midfielder Joao Gomes (No 8 circled in blue) slide across to cover his wing-back and an attacking midfielder drop in on City’s wide forwards.

Forcing them sideways and backwards will slow down the pace of their attacks, providing valuable time for Wolves’ players to readjust their positions.

O’Neil’s big match blueprint

In three of Wolves’ best wins of the season so far, they set their stall out to sit deep and play on the break.

During victories at Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur, as well as that win at home to City, they did not do a lot of pressing inside the opposition half.

Instead, they allowed their rivals to come on to them, before engaging more aggressively between the halfway line and edge of the own penalty area.

Wolves will have far less possession than normal, their central defenders will be asked to absorb a lot of pressure and they will look to strike hard and fast on the counter.

Attacking midfielder Matheus Cunha will be a key man for them, carrying the ball forward to relieve that pressure.

And, as shown in the table below, the team will almost certainly attempt plenty of long passes (way above their season average of 11.30 per cent) in a bid to gain territory.

Wolves wins v season average stats 23/24

Rotate your mobile device to see the full table

This tactic can also hurt City if used effectively.

Their winning goal in that 2-1 victory stemmed from a terrific Max Kilman pass aimed over the head of Nathan Ake for wing-back Nelson Semedo to run on to.

From his centre, Cunha cleverly teed up Hwang Hee-chan to score inside the box.

Tougher second time around

Man City conceded more chances than usual in Sunday’s 2-0 win at Nottingham Forest and this may provide Wolves with a degree of added confidence.

They know the task in hand is incredibly difficult though, especially with the second-placed side winning their last five matches by an aggregate score of 19-4.

Wolves will undoubtedly miss the game-changing pace of Pedro Neto too.

It was his blistering run that sparked their opening goal at Molineux and without him they will not find it as easy to break at speed.

Chances are likely to be few and far between, so Wolves will need to be as clinical as they were in the autumn when scoring twice from three shots on goal.

Hwang and Cunha conversion stats 23/24

When opportunities do fall Wolves’ way, they will want them to fall to Hwang or Cunha.

Of the 25 players to have scored at least 10 Premier League goals in 2023/24, only five have a better big chance conversion rate than Cunha, who is cool at key moments.

Hwang also ranks third in the Premier League rankings, with an impressive overall 34.38 per cent strike rate.

Claiming a "double double" will be a serious challenge for Wolves, but going to Etihad Stadium should not be seen as mission impossible.

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